Markets Ahead Week: Dow Jones, Gold, US Dollar, Crude Oil, OPEC+, AUD/USD, RBA

Global market sentiment remained upbeat last week. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained around 0.3%, 1.1% and 1.9% respectively. That’s when the VIX market’s “fear gauge” closed at its lowest since the start of this year. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 0.93% and 6.27%, respectively.

A key development was another notable drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, which fell 5.5% to the lowest since September. Since October, the markets have been pricing in an increasingly accommodative Federal Reserve. A closer look at the Fed implied curve shows traders added at least 75 basis points in 2-year rate cuts.

Unsurprisingly, this coincided with the worst month for the US dollar since September 2010, with the DXY index falling 5.1%. Gold clearly emerged victorious from the falling dollar and bond yields. XAU/USD jumped 8.3% in November, the highest since the early stages of the global pandemic in 2020. The Japanese yen was another winner, strengthening 7.1% as USD/ JPY fell.

Markets focused on the expected change in the Federal Reserve’s tightening pace. Countless officials have hinted at a reduction in the pace of tightening amid what could be a turning point in inflation. But, as last week’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed, the labor market remains tight.

Crude oil remained calm. All eyes for the coming week are on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and the fate of the supply. Meanwhile, AUD/USD will be watching the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision. USD/CAD also has the Bank of Canada to look forward to. China publishes its latest inflation report. What else is in store for the markets in the coming week?

Market performance – Week of 28/11

Fundamental forecasts:

S&P 500, DAX 40 and ASX 200 fundamental forecast for the week ahead

Global indices made a bid to charge the holiday rally early this year with an upside break led by the United States last week. Still, the follow-through is starting to kick in even as we enter December trading. With expected levels of activity falling but anticipation of key event risk rising, volatility is a high risk and trends are under threat.

British Pound (GBP) Outlook – GBP/USD Pulled Higher by US Dollar, What Next?

The British Pound is going to have to work hard to keep GBP/USD higher, and next week’s economic calendar is of no help.

Australian Dollar Outlook: Rising US Dollar Boosts AUD/USD

The Aussie dollar stretched higher as the US dollar got a flog following not-so-bellicose comments from Fed Chief Powell. Will AUD/USD reach a new high?

US Dollar Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Worst Month Since 2010, Was That Exaggerated?

The US dollar had its worst month since September 2010 as markets aggressively priced a dovish Federal Reserve. A tight US jobs report suggests the USD move may be overdone.

Euro Weekly Outlook: EUR/USD at the mercy of the Dollar, 1.05 still key

The Euro was unable to hold above 1.05 after NFP data supported the USD ahead of a relatively quiet week.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Looks Set For Further Rise, BoC Rate Decision Holds Key

The Canadian dollar seems ready to continue its recent difficulties. Will the Bank of Canada create another surprise at next week’s policy meeting?

Technical forecasts:

The fight for the dollar increasingly threatens to turn into a real reversal: USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

The dollar has again stumbled in its retreat over the past two months. For the DXY index, we ended the longest period above the 200-day moving average on record; while key pairs like USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD are poised to continue their technical momentum.

Gold and Silver Technical Forecast: Both Supported by Dollar Weakness and Silver Surges

Gold and silver both benefited from a weaker dollar, but silver stands out from the two metals. Gold Consolidates at Severe Resistance, Silver Continues to Rise

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook – Long Term Downtrends Meet Short Term Uptrends

US stock market rallies took an NFP-induced break at the end of the week, but still remain in positive territory for the week.

Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY Patterns

The Japanese yen held up against its major peers as the safe-haven currency stabilizes around technical levels. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY prices.

— Body of the article written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

— Individual articles composed by members of the DailyFX team

To contact Daniel, follow him on Twitter:@ddubrovskyFX